摘要
文章分析了影响寿险保单退保的主要因素,并利用中国寿险市场1983-2007年的退保数据,选择失业率、利率、物价指数三个变量建立了向量误差修正模型(VECM)对影响退保的"财务危机"、"利率替代"和"支付贬值"三个假说进行了实证检验,结果表明三个变量都影响退保率的变化,"支付贬值"因素的短期和长期影响最明显,"利率替代"因素的短期和长期效应也比较显著,而"财务危机"的长期效应不显著,文章最后根据分析结果提出了相应的应对措施。
This paper analyzes the main factors that influence the withdrawal of life insurance policy in China. based on data through 983-2007 we construct a VECM with unemployment rate,interest rate and price index as variables to test the hypotheses regarding three main influential factors: financial difficulty,interest rate alternative,and payment depreciation. The results show that payment depreciation has most significant short and long term effect on insurance withdrawal,that interest rate alternative has fare significant short and long term effect while financial difficulty has no significant long term effect.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第4期93-98,共6页
Modern Economic Science
基金
“广东外语外贸大学科研创新团队基金”(GW2006-TA-002)
“广东外语外贸大学校级青年项目”(GW2006-Q-005)资助
关键词
退保
影响因素
实证分析VECM模型
Insurance policy withdrawal
Influence factors
Empirical analysis
VECM model
