摘要
对贵州省产卷烟省内消费量及其影响因素进行了协整分析,结果显示:卷烟消费总量及各类烟消费量与国内生产总值、人口数之间均存在长期均衡关系。在协整回归基础上,建立了描述贵州省卷烟消费短期动态变化规律的误差修正模型。最后,运用西方消费理论,结合贵州省卷烟消费实际,对实证结果进行了解释与分析,并得出相关结论与建议。
The consumption quantity of cigarettes made in Guizhou and its influence factors are analyzed by the cointegration method in Guizhou. The results of cointegration analysis demonstrate that between the total consumption quantity of cigarettes and GDP and population, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, at the same time, between the consumption quantity of each kind of cigarettes and GDP and population, there is the same relationship too. Based on the cointegration regression, the Error Correction Model （ECM） is established to describe the dynamic rule of the cigarettes consumption in Guizhou in short-term. Finally, by linking the western economic consumption theory with the practice of the cigarettes consumption in Guizhou, the empirical results are analyzed and explained, and then draws the related conclusion and suggestion.
出处
《特区经济》
北大核心
2008年第6期198-199,共2页
Special Zone Economy
关键词
卷烟
卷烟消费
贵州省卷烟
协整分析
误差修正模型
cigarettes
cigarettes consumption
cigarettes in Guizhou
cointegration analysis
ECM
