摘要
基于1989—1998年蓬莱市北沟镇和徐家集镇的耕地总量,利用灰色系统建立GM(1,1)模型,对2镇1999—2008年的耕地总量进行预测,并分析了变化趋势。预测结果显示,耕地总量将呈现出持续减少的趋势,合理利用和保护耕地资源是刻不容缓的任务。
Through analysis on condition and characteristics of cultivated land resource in Penglai city, on the basis of statistic datas of the cultivated land in Beigou town and Xujiaji town in Penglai city from 1989 to 1998, by using gray system, GM （1,1） model is set up, and cultivated land area from 1999 to 2008 in these two towns are predicated and variation trend is analyzed as well. As showed by the predication result, total amount of cultivated land will decrease continuously. Thus, it is very urget to use and protect cultivated land resource reasonably.
出处
《山东国土资源》
2008年第6期46-48,52,共4页
Shandong Land and Resources
关键词
灰色系统
GM(1
1)模型
动态变化分析
变化趋势
山东蓬莱
Grey system
GM（ 1, 1）model
dynamic variation analysis
variation trend predication
Penglai city
