摘要
为了控制老路拓宽中的差异沉降,需要对新路基进行沉降预测.取沉降观测点在相同观测时段内的沉降量为原始序列,将其作1次累加生成1次累加序列,根据GM(1,1)模型建立灰色微分方程,解微分方程可得方程的时间响应序列,并采用后验差法对模型的可靠性进行了检验.通过对贺家坪连接线新路基的实测沉降数据的分析,证明将灰色预测模型GM(1,1)应用于预测路基的沉降量是可行的.在实际运用过程中,应不断代入新近的实测数据,以获得更准确的结果.
In order to control the differential settlement when widening the existing roads, prediction of new base settlement is necessary. The paper selects the equal-interval insitu settlement value as the initial sequence, then adds the data from the first datum to the next to form the 1-AGO sequence, thus the differential equation is established. To solve this equation, the paper gets the settlement value alone with the variation of the time, and checks its precision. By analyzing the subgrade settlement data of Hejiaping Joint Line, the research proves that the settlement value predicted with GM（ 1,1 ） model is feasible. In order to gain more accurate results, the new updated data should be added to the model.
出处
《华东交通大学学报》
2008年第3期36-39,共4页
Journal of East China Jiaotong University
关键词
差异沉降
沉降预测
GM(1
1)模型
differential settlement
settlement prediction
GM（ 1,1 ） model
