摘要
基于1978—2004年的二元反差指数和二元对比系数数据,利用指数平滑法和ARMA模型,对未来10年的二元反差程度预测得出:如果现有政策不变,未来二元反差程度将会扩大;考虑国家自2002年以来支农政策的实施效果,从未来趋势上看,二元反差程度会进一步缩小。
Based on the dual contrast index data and dual comparative index data from the year 1978 to 2004, this paper makes a prediction to the degree of dual contrast between urban and rural area in China in the future ten years by using exponential smoothing and autoregression and moving average（ARMA） model. The results show that the degree of the future contrast index will widen if current policies remain unchanged. Taking the actual effect of farmer-favoring policies since 2002 into account, the paper predicts that the degree of dual contrast will diminish as far as the future tendency is concerned.
出处
《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2008年第4期289-293,共5页
Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金资助重大项目(07&ZD045)
国家社会科学基金青年资助项目(05CJL005)
关键词
二元反差指数
二元对比系数
指数平滑法
ARMA模型
dual contrast index
dual inverse index
exponential smoothing
auto-regressive and moving average（ARMA） model
