摘要
根据杭州地区每日96点负荷数据和气象资料,研究分析了春节期间用电负荷曲线的形状、走势和特点,综合考虑气象、历史负荷等对春节负荷变化的影响,采用了一种简便的负荷预测方法。该方法通过选取气象条件相似的双休日来预测春节日最大负荷,然后根据负荷特性分析的结果计算出各时段的负荷值。该方法工作量较小,预测精度较高。2007年杭州春节期间负荷的预测结果表明,这是一种行之有效的方法。
Based on the daily load data and meteoro-logical element observations in Hangzhou, the shape of the load curve during Spring Festival, its varying trend and characteristics were analyzed. Considering the influence of whether, historical load and other factors on the variation of load during Spring Festival ,a simple and convenient load forecasting method was given, in which the maximum daily load during the Spring Festival was forecasted by selecting the historical load with similar climatic conditions. According to the percentage of daily load, the load values at different time points were calculated. The advantages of the presented method were less workload and higher forecasting accuracy, the resuits of Spring Festival in 2007 showed that this method was effective.
出处
《能源工程》
2008年第3期12-15,共4页
Energy Engineering
关键词
春节
负荷特性
负荷预测
Spring Festival
load characteristics
load forecasting
