摘要
本文综合多种因素界定各省区市的经济发展阶段,由非参数估计得到的污染曲线的形态和污染规模确定各省区市污染程度,分析经济发展阶段和环境污染的关系。研究结果表明,基于经济发展阶段的整体污染、水污染、大气污染和固体废物污染曲线都为倒U型曲线。整体污染和水污染曲线的拐点在工业化高级阶段,大气污染和固体废物污染曲线的拐点在工业化中级阶段。我国大部分省区市处于工业化中初期的发展结构以及对应的污染曲线表明,近期环境污染将继续加重,废气和固体废物污染在工业化中初期较严重,废水污染处于缓慢上升的趋势。因此,环境问题不能等进入发达经济初级阶段后再解决,要以新型工业化道路取代传统工业化道路。
This paper determines the economic development stage of each province according to theoretical benchmarks, decides the pollution degree by shapes of provincial pollution curves and pollution scales, and analyzes the relationship between economic development stages and the environmental pollution. It shows that the aggregate, water, air and solid waster pollution curves are all inverted U-shaped. The turning points of aggregate and water pollution curves occur in advanced stage of industrialization. The turning points of air and solid waste pollution curves emerge in middle stage of industrialization. Because most of Chinese provinces are in the early and middle stages of industrialization and for the pollution curve characteristics of these stages, the environment will keep deteriorating in recent years. The air and solid waste pollution are critical in early and middle stages. The water pollution rises slowly. Therefore, for environmental problem, we can＇t wait until the early stage of developed economy. New ways of industrialization should be taken instead of traditional industrialization way.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第6期35-43,共9页
China Industrial Economics
关键词
经济发展阶段
环境污染
库兹涅茨曲线
economic development stages
environmental pollution
Kuznets curve
