摘要
根据辽宁省海洋渔业统计资料,分析了辽宁省海洋渔业产量结构,运用剩余产量模型估算了最大持续产量,运用ARIMA(pdq)时间序列模型与GM(11)模型分析预测了2004～2010年海水养殖产量、远洋渔业产量与各海区的捕捞产量。结果表明:辽宁省近海捕捞产量已经超过最大持续产量,如不采取有效措施仍将有一定程度的增长,在渤海与黄海的产量到2010年将比2003年增加23.40万t与23.79万t;远洋渔业与海水养殖业,其产量在2010年将比2003年增加8.59万t与242.40万t。文章对辽宁省海洋渔业产量结构调整进行了讨论。
Based on marine fishery statistics data in Liaoning province, an analysis of marine fishery yield structure was made, the surplus yield model was used to calculate the maximum sustainable yield, and the forecasted yield of marine culture, pelagic fishing and each domestic fishing sea over the period from 2004 to 2010 was calculated by using autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA （p, d, q）] and grey model theory [ GM （ 1, 1 ） ] . The result indicated that offshore fishing yield in Liaoning province, which had overrun maximum sustainable yield, would increase on the certain degree over the period from 2004 to 2010 if some effective measures wasn＇t be adopted. Compared with the number of 2003 in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, the marine fishing yield would increase by 234. 0 thousand tons and 237.9 thousand tons. Furthermore, compared with the number of 2003 in mariculture and pelagic fishing, the yield would increase by 85.9 thousand tons and 2 424. 0 thousand tons. And a discussion about the structure regulation of marine fishery yield was made.
出处
《南方水产》
2005年第6期55-62,共8页
South China Fisheries Science
基金
辽宁省教育厅A类项目(20104330)
关键词
海洋渔业产量
结构调整
剩余产量模型
GM模型
ARIMA模型
marine fishery yield
structure regulation
surplus yield model
grey model theory
auto-regressive integrated moving average model
