摘要
出境旅游市场是我国当前三大旅游市场中增长最快的市场,对出境旅游发展水平与阶段的正确认识是理论研究与政策实践的基础。基于全球44个主要的国际旅游客源国家与地区的1980年至2004年出境旅游及相关数据,本文采用截面回归与面板数据模型进行的研究发现:随着人均GDP与人均国民总收入的增长,一国的出境旅游率将会呈现指数形态的上升,在现价美元16000元左右将会出现出境旅游的爆发性增长;但一国的出境旅游率存在大国效应,人口规模与出境旅游率呈负相关关系;研究结果还显示,只有经济发展到达一定阶段后,经济增长速度对出境旅游增长的影响才会明显表现出来。
Outbound tourist market is the fastest growing market among the three tourist markets in China. Hence a correct understanding of the level and phases of its development can serve as the basis of both theoretical researches and policy practices. Based on data of 44 main tourist countries and regions from 1980 to 2004, the authors applied cross-section and panel data research methods to study their outbound tourist markets. It is found that a country＇s outbound tourist rate appears to increase with it＇ s growing per capita GDP and GNP, and an explosive growth is expected when per capita GNP reaches about 16000 USD; however there exists a big-country effect demonstrated by negative correlation between the population of a country and its outbound tourist rate. The results also show that remarkable impact of economical growth speed will only be clearly felt when the economy grows to a particular level.
出处
《旅游科学》
CSSCI
2008年第2期33-37,共5页
Tourism Science
关键词
出境旅游
国际比较
经济发展水平
大国效应
outbound travel
international comparison
economic development level
big-country effect
