摘要
序贯观察和选择问题是一种动态的信息搜索和决策过程,基于决策者的有限理性假设和行为决策理论对搜索过程中选项值的特征信息效应进行研究。运用实验室实验的方法研究发现,序贯随机出现的选项值离散程度对人们的判断心理和决策行为具有影响作用,选项值的整体离散程度与搜索数量呈负相关关系,而其局部急剧升高的离散程度则与发生选择的概率呈正相关关系。研究还发现,人们往往高估自己解决序贯观察和选择问题的能力,存在着明显的过度自信偏差。
Sequential observation and selection problem is a class of dynamic information search and decision process. On the theory ground of bounded rationality and behavioral decision, there is iogical causality between alternative＇s characteristic information and decision-making. By using the descriptive method of laboratory experiment, we found that discrete degree of alternative＇s quality can impact on Decision-maker＇s judgment psychology and decision behavior. There is a negative causality between global discrete degree of sampled applicant s and search number, and a positive causality between local discrete degree in that applicant and probability of selecting the candidate. Additionally, people often overestimate their ability to win with obvious overconfidence bias.
出处
《管理科学》
CSSCI
2008年第2期104-110,共7页
Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(70372049)
国家自然科学基金优秀创新群体项目(70121001)
关键词
秘书问题
离散程度
搜索数量
实验研究
secretary problem
discrete degree
search numbers
experimental study
