摘要
本文尝试将组合预测法应用于福建省的粮食产量预测,以提高预测的精度。运用平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)等5个预测效果的评价指标对各模型进行综合比较,结合熵权法客观地为每种预测方法分配权重;通过赋予合理权重,将各模型的预测结果加权求和得到最终的预测结果,建立了福建省粮食产量组合预测模型。利用1949-2004年福建粮食产量资料进行拟合检验,组合模型的精度明显提高。
A combination forecasting model was applied to forecast the grain production in Fujian Province and to improve the precision of the prediction. Five evaluation indicators were used to comprehensively compare the different forecasting methods. The weight of each model in the com- bination forecasting model was objectively calculated with entropy weight theory. Three production forecasting models were combined to establish a combination forecasting model for the grain yield by proper weights. The forecasting results of all the methods were weighted and summed to gain the final forecasting results. The combination forecasting model was used to simulate the crop yield from 1949 to 2004 in Fujian Province. The result showed that the combination forecasting method would increase forecasting accuracy and reduce risks at the same time. The forecast precision was obviously improved.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2008年第2期194-196,共3页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
福建省农业科技攻关计划重点项目(2004N018)
关键词
粮食产量
组合预测
熵权
福建省
Grain production
Combination forecast
Entropy weight
Fujian Province
