摘要
本文应用考虑结构平滑转移的单位根检验方法,对中国22个主要的宏观经济变量进行了检验,结果表明其中半数能够拒绝单位根假设,可以用非线性确定趋势过程加以描述。除就业人员序列外,其余变量均不具有显著的非对称调整特征。实际GDP序列在改革开放初期发生了一次结构渐变,稳态增长率由原来的4.4%逐步提高到7.2%,标志着我国经济整体上已经平稳过渡到了一个更高的发展阶段。
This paper applies the unit root test allowing for smooth transition to investigate the dynamic path of 22 Chinese macroeconomic variables. The results show that half of them can reject the unit root hypothesis, providing evidence for non-linear deterministic trend. Asymmetric adjustment is only found in the employment series. Real GDP experienced a smooth transition in the early period of the reform. China＇s steady-state growth rate rose gradually from 4.4% to 7.2%, which means that Chinese economy has smoothly evolved into a new stage.
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第4期3-11,共9页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
南开大学亚洲研究中心课题"经济计量模型的稳定性研究"成果之一
关键词
平滑转移
结构变动
经济增长
Smooth Transition
Structural Change
Economic Growth
