摘要
提出了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的特许期确定方法,包括项目的建造期、项目建造成本现值和运营期的模拟分析,并通过算例说明模拟的过程及结果的应用,通过蒙特卡罗模拟得到的均值、标准差等数学特征值,可以用来指导公私合作制项目特许经营协议中关于特许期、风险分担机制等重要条款的签订,避免决策失误,实现公私双方共赢.
In this paper, a simulation model and methodology which aim to assist the partners to detennine an optimal concession period are proposed, mainly including the simulation of the project completion time, the total project development cost and opera- tion period. A case study of a hypothetical infrastructure is provided to illustrate the simulation procedure and its applications. The statistic characteristics of simulation, such as the mean and standard deviation, could be used to determinate an appropriate length of concession period and demarcate the rights and responsibilities between the public authority and private sector for the risks and uncertainties based on the win-win principle.
出处
《上海师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2008年第1期68-73,共6页
Journal of Shanghai Normal University(Natural Sciences)
基金
中国工程院咨询项目(200607)
上海市教委科研项目(06DZ023)
关键词
公私合作制
特许期
蒙特卡罗模拟
风险分析
Public-Private Partnerships （PPP）
concession period
Monte Carlo simulation
risk analysis
