摘要
[目的]探讨不同模型在疟疾发病预测中的应用,并预测疟疾在中国未来的发病趋势。[方法]采用灰色(1∶1)模型、自回归模型、ARIMA模型对1984—2006年中国疟疾的发病率资料进行数据拟合及未来几年发病率预测。[结果]3种预测模型对疟疾发病率的拟合均良好。1984—2006年疟疾发病率总体呈急速下降趋势,但自2001年,疟疾发病率出现低水平上升。经预测2008、2010及2012年疟疾的发病率分别为5.70/10万、7.40/10万和10.11/10万。[结论]3种模型均可较好地拟合疟疾发病率的变化趋势。我国以往的防疟措施正确有效,目前疟疾发病率出现低水平波动并小幅度上升的新特点,需大力加强监测和预报工作。
[ Objective ] To explore the applications of 3 different models in prediction of incidence rate of malaria, and to predict the incidence trend of the disease in later years in China. [ Methods ] Using Grey model （ 1 ： 1 ） , autoregression model, ARIMA model to fit the data of the incidence rate in our country from 1984 to 2006, and predict the incidence rate of malaria in later years. [ Results] Three of the predictive models fit well with the incidence rate of malaria. According to the reported data, there was a sharp decrease in the tendency of the incidence rate during 1984 to 2006, however, the rate was rising again at a lower level since 2001. The incidence rates of malaria in 2008,2010 and 2012 were predicted as 5.70/100 000, 7.40/100 000 and 10.11/100 000 respectively. [ Conclusion] All of the three models fit well with the variety tendency of the incidence rates of malaria. Our country＇ s preventive measures of malaria in the past years were appropriate and effective. In recent years, incidence rates of malaria were fluctuating at a low level and rising in a small extent. We should strengthen the surveillance and prediction work in the future.
出处
《上海预防医学》
CAS
2008年第2期57-60,共4页
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
模型
疟疾
预测
Model
Malaria
Pediction
