摘要
本文综合应用生态足迹、协整理论及误差修正模型，分析了我国资源消耗与经济增长之间的关系。计算了中国1961年～2001年的生态足迹及能源足迹、耕地足迹、草地足迹、林地足迹、建筑足迹、水域足迹。在此基础上．详细研究了GDP与各种生态足迹之间的长期均衡关系。研究结果表明GDP分别与总生态足迹、耕地足迹、能源足迹之间存在协整关系，而GDP与草地足迹、林地足迹、建筑足迹、水域足迹不存在协整关系，这说明我国的经济增长方式属于资源、能源消耗型；并建立了GDP与总生态足迹、耕地足迹、能源足迹之间的误差修正模型，应用模型分析发现增加1％的GDP产出需要增加0．61％的生态足迹，需要增加2．38％的能源足迹、1．28％的耕地足迹，因此能源成为我国经济可持续增长的瓶颈。因此，为保持我国经济的可持续增长，必须改变经济增长方式，使知识、技术、信息成为推动经济增长的新动力，从根本上改变经济增长对资源的依赖性。
Based on theories of the ecological footprint, co-integration, Error Correction Model, the relationship between resource consumption and economic development was analyzed. The ecological footprint and energy, arable land, pasture, forestland, water area and residential land footprints have been calculated from 1961 to 2001 in this paper. The relationship between China＇ s GDP and the ecological footprint was researched in detail. The results showed that a co-integration relationship existed between GDP and the ecological footprint, energy footprint, arable land footprint. There is no co0integration relationship between GDP and footprints of grassland, forestland, water body, residential land. On the basis of above analysis, the Error Correction Models on LGDP-LZ, LGDP-LHZ, LGDP-LGZ were instituted. Because of existing co-integration relationship between the economic growth and natural resource, the economic development in China will rely on consumption of substantial resources and energy in a long run. The modeling result show that one per cent of GDP growth need respectively a input of 0. 61 per cent of ecological footprint, 2.38 per cent of energy footprint and 1.28 per cent of arable footprint. It is concluded that energy footprint is the key factor affecting economic growth. How to resolve the conflicts between economic growth and natural resources is a key issue facing China, Therefore, we must improve China＇s economic development patters in order to keep our economic development sustainable. Finally, the authors put forward a series of countermeasures for maintaining the sustainable economic development in China： 1）The consumption patterns of China＇s economic growth have put a heavy burden on the energy resources. Therefore, we should slow down energy consumption per GDP, improve the energy structure, and speed up research on alternative energy and renewable energy; 2） To eliminate the conflicts between the economic development and cropland limitation, and increase effectiveness of cropland produ
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第2期261-266,共6页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目:"县域海岛生态经济模型及实证研究"(编号:70573063)
山东省软科学研究计划项目:"基于循环经济的煤炭矿区发展模式研究"(编号:B2006039)
山东省教育厅项目:"矿区生态补偿机制研究"(编号:521-001-030081)
关键词
生态足迹
协整
Granger关系
误差修正模型
可持续发展
Ecological footprint
Co-integration
Granger causality
Error correction model
Sustainable development
