摘要
采用生活情境测查任务和经典测查任务探讨了任务情境对青少年贝叶斯推理的影响,以及生活情境测查任务中不同证据信息对青少年贝叶斯判断的影响作用。结果表明:(1)在生活情境测查任务中,从小学六年级到大学二年级,被试的贝叶斯推理能力稳步缓慢提升(相邻的两个被试组之间差异不显著,而不相邻的两个被试组之间差异更容易达到显著水平),发展没有出现加速期,而经典测查任务情境下没有表现出年龄差异;(2)贝叶斯推理作为条件概率的判断不仅受任务情境的影响,而且同一任务情境中不同证据信息也会影响贝叶斯判断。当证据信息与先验信念一致时,被试可以充分利用线索进行推理。
Life context and classical tasks were used to discuss the effects of different task and evidence information on the Bayesian inference of adolescents. The results indicated that （1） Compared to classical mammography problems, the ability of Bayesian reasoning had an apparent improvement from the sixth grade in elementary school to the sophomore year at college, which was reflected by the more accuracy results. No such thing was found in the situation of classical tasks; （2） Bayesian inference was affected not only by task context but also by different evidence information.
出处
《心理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第1期181-184,共4页
Journal of Psychological Science
基金
国家重点学科西南大学基础心理学项目资助
关键词
贝叶斯推理
条件概率
任务情境
证据信息
Bayesian reasoning, conditional probability, task context, evidence information
