摘要
归纳了南平市19年来小径材杉木木材价格变动趋势。同时，依据三次指教平滑模型和灰色系统理论GM（1，1）模型，分析了杉木小径材木材价格变动趋势。预测结果显示，今后杉木小径材木材总体价格趋势上涨，4～6cm和8～12cm的木材价格高峰期将出现在2012、2018和2010、2015年。
The paper summarizes the price change trend of small caliber Chinese fir in Nanping city for recent 19 years. Meanwhile, it also analyzes the price trend according to grey-system theory GM （ 1, 1 ） and smooth model SM2. As a result, the precisions of these two models＇ prediction are high. The predications reveal that the overall price trend will increase in the future, and the maximum prices of 4era 6cm and 8cm - 12cm timbers will appear in years of 2012 and 2018 as well as 2010 and 2015 respectively.
出处
《林业调查规划》
2007年第6期33-36,共4页
Forest Inventory and Planning
基金
福建省教育厅科学基金资助项目(JA04185)
