摘要
预测未来几年煤炭成本的变化趋势,既要把握宏观,又要深入研究煤炭企业成本管理的深层次问题。近两年来,国家集中调整煤炭产业政策,政策性增支因素较多,加之生产资料的上涨因素,煤炭企业原煤生产成本的变动受到诸多因素的影响。采用时间序列指数平滑法,预测我国煤炭吨煤生产成本的变动趋势,既要领会国家"十一五"中长期规划的战略部署,又要准确结合煤炭行业自身的发展规律。
It is important for us to forecast coal cost in the future years , which should not only grasp the macroscopical environment but also should deeply investigate the problem of cost management in coal enterprise. After about these years＇ efforts, the coal industry reformation has acquired material developments, and the whole coal market is affected by political increasing factors which includes production, cost resource cost （including resource tax, resource compensation fee and mineral title）, safety cost, environmental cost etc. This paper forecast the trend of per coal cost by means of Time Series Exponential Smoothing on the basis of comprehension the Outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan and combining with the development of Chings coal industry.
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2007年第12期43-47,共5页
China Mining Magazine
基金
江苏省教育厅哲社基金(06STD790053
07SJD630083)
中国矿业大学青年科技基金(0J061014)
管理学院科研基金及校科研计划(050910
060911
070919)的阶段性成果
关键词
煤炭成本
影响因素
预测
时间序列指数平滑法
coal cost
influence factors
forecast
time series exponential smoothing
