摘要
追溯了石油峰值(Peak Oil)理论的起源,介绍了国内外石油峰值的研究现状,包括悲观派与乐观派的代表人物、观点及争论的焦点等。提出了对石油峰值问题的几点思考:1)石油峰值问题是一个严肃的科学问题,对石油峰值问题的探究有助于科学判断未来石油工业的拐点,促进石油资源的科学利用以及替代能源的发展;2)石油峰值的预测是一个复杂巨系统,以往的研究存在局限;3)Hubbert成功预测美国的石油峰值缘于其丰富的经验,但是也存在一定的巧合;4)在实际中石油储量存在着很大的谜团,技术进步和高油价对石油产量的影响也很难估计,石油峰值预测存在众多不确定性。
This paper traces the sources of the Peak Oil theory and introduces current research from China and abroad, including major figures in the optimistic and pessimistic schools, their main views, and focuses of controversy. The paper reflects on Peak Oil: 1) Peak Oil is a serious scientific issue. Peak Oil research may help the scientific community judge the inflexion of the oil industry in future, as well as boosting scientific utilization of oil resources and alternative-energy development. 2) Predicting Peak Oil is a complex process, and the current research does contain flaws. 3) Hubbert's extensive background allowed him to successfully predict Peak Oil in the U.S., but some fortunate coincidences were involved as well. 4) In reality, oil reserves involve a great many unsolved riddles, and the impact on oil production of technological progress and high prices remains difficult to predict. Peak Oil predictions contain a number of uncertainties.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2007年第11期29-35,共7页
International Petroleum Economics