摘要
本文采用每天发布预报前两个小时的实况信息以及青岛近海风速日变化特征对中尺度模式MM5输出的定点逐时风速预报进行了订正。实践证明,此种数值产品释用方法行之有效。总体而言,可以较大程度地提高风速预报准确率,为实现风速定点、定时、定量的精细化预报提供了较为理想的客观预报方法。2006年8月,通过该方法获得的风速客观预报产品在"青岛国际帆船赛"中发挥了重要作用。
The sailing competition of the 2008 Olympic Summer Games will be held in Qingd ao, Shandong. Sailing is highly sensitive to winds on the sea, and forecasts are required to provide point-specified and quantitative hourly wind behavior for the day. It is a challenge since wind forecasts are rarely made on the time and space scales of that needed during the O lympic sailing events. In this paper, a simple objective method based on meso-scale numerical model （MM5） output is presented to conduct the refined wind speed forecast. For generating hourly wind speed forecasts of the given location, the latest hourly buoy wind speed information and the climatic diurnal cycle of wind speed are taken into consideration to verify direct model forecasts. The method has recently been applied in the period of National Sailing Tournament （18-30, August, 2006）, which is proved feasible. Generally speaking, though further necessary improvements in accuracy the corrected forecasts are improved in the accuracy for wind speed forecasts by more than 40%.
出处
《海洋湖沼通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第4期30-36,共7页
Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology
基金
国家科技攻关计划奥运科技专项(2002BA904B05-01)资助
关键词
青岛近海
风速
精细化预报
Qingdao offshore zones, wind speed, refined forecast
