摘要
在充分解剖现代投资组合优化模型的基础上,根据目前勘探与生产的需要,探索性地提出了考虑地质风险的勘探项目投资组合优化模型。不考虑勘探项目地质风险的投资组合优化模型,由于只考虑了组合的不确定性风险而未考虑地质风险,容易造成过分乐观的判断。针对模型的不足,首先引入考虑地质风险的净现值定义,并提出风险净现值的计算方法,然后用考虑风险后的净现值和考虑风险后的储量两个新指标来修正原模型,使新模型能同时考虑两种风险。松辽盆地20个勘探项目优化组合应用证明,考虑风险后组合的构成基本继承了风险前组合的特点,而且前者的指标明显小于后者的指标。新组合指标在油气勘探决策中更具有实际参考价值。
Based on the existing modern portfolio optimization models, a new optimization portfolio for exploration projects, which considers the geological risk, is proposed to meet the current needs of petroleum exploration decision making. After pointing out the shortcomings of the existing models in exploration, the paper discusses the concept of the geological risk NPV and its calculation method. By revising NPV and reserve in the existing models with risked NPV and risked reserve, the new model can take both portfolio uncertainty and geological risk into account. The application of the proposed model is demonstrated through a case study in the Songliao basin. The new model inherits basic properties from the original model and the economic indicators from the new model are smaller than those from the original model. The new combination of economic parameters provides more practical and valuable information for making exploration decision.
出处
《石油勘探与开发》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第6期760-764,共5页
Petroleum Exploration and Development
基金
全国新一轮油气资源评价攻关项目
中国石油天然气股份有限公司2005年科技项目(050141-2)
关键词
勘探项目
投资组合
优化模型
地质风险
风险NPV
决策
exploration project
investment portfolio
optimization model
geological risk
risked NPV
decision-making
