摘要
根据基于活动的出行需求预测思想和建模方法建立了日活动计划模型。应用长春市居民出行调查数据进行了参数标定和模型验证,并用'模拟-比较-评价'方法将已建模型应用于交通需求管理政策的制定和评价。结果表明,建立基于活动的日活动计划模型,可全面有效地模拟预测和分析居民活动安排情况,对交通需求管理策略进行初步的评价研究。
According to the activity-based travel demand forecasting concept and modeling, a full-day activity pattern model was developed. This model was calibrated and validated using the survey data collected in Changchun city. Then it was applied to establish and evaluate the Transportation Demand Management by means of ＂model-compare-evaluate＂. The results indicate that by the activity-based day activity pattern model the residents＂ travel plan can be fully and effectively forecasted. Thus the policy of transportation demand management can be evaluated.
出处
《吉林大学学报（工学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第6期1294-1299,共6页
Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20030183008)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50578094)
关键词
交通运输系统工程
出行需求
往返行程
非集计模型
选择肢
engineering of communication and transportation safety
travel demand
tour
disaggregate model
alternative
