摘要
三峡工程项目的规模巨大,对特定区域乃至社会的影响深远和复杂,其不确定性和策略互动所反映出来的生态价值被放大。使用传统的评价方法体系对其评价难以得到有说服力的评价结果,而使用期权博弈理论评价体系则可以充分考虑管理柔性价值和策略互动价值,进而可以从效率增进原则,风险规避原则和互动公平原则的角度重新审视三峡项目的价值内涵和可行性结论。
The Three Gorges Project is large enough to affect the related region development, even the entire society. The ecological value based on the uncertainty and the strategy interacting will be enlarged. The traditional method may not give the persuadable evaluation result on Three Gorges Project, but the option game evaluation could consider the soft value of the management and the strategy interacting. On the view of the option game principle of the maximizing efficiency, reciprocal fairness, risk aversion, it evaluates the real value and the feasibility of Three Gorges Project.
出处
《延安大学学报（社会科学版）》
2007年第5期81-84,共4页
Journal of Yan'an University (Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金"特大型工程项目评价的期权博弈模型及其实证研究"课题的研究成果之一(项目编号:70471048)
关键词
三项工程项目
期权博弈评价
不确定性
策略均衡
Three Gorges Project
option game evaluation
uncertainty
strategy equilibrium
