摘要
科学判断三次产业的长期变动趋势对合理制定产业政策有重要意义。利用成分数据分析法,把受约束的三次产业结构数据转化为无约束的数据,再运用向量自回归(VAR)模型分析深圳市的三次产业结构变动趋势。通过分析,本文认为目前深圳市产业结构要再次跳跃式发展,直接进入以服务业为主的后工业化阶段条件还不成熟。
To scientifically judge the long-term trend of Shenzhen＇s three industrial structures is of great significance to the establishment of reasonable industrial policy. Therefore, this paper analyzed the future developing trend of the three industrial structure by adopting the method of compositional data to free the compositional data of three industrial structures, and then utilizing the vector autoregression （VAR） model to analyze the developing trend of local three industrial structures in Shenzhen City. According to the analysis, it is not the time for Shenzhen to leap again in the development of industrial structures to enter the post-industry era directly.
出处
《价值工程》
2007年第1期20-23,共4页
Value Engineering
关键词
三次产业结构
成分数据
VAR模型
three industrial structure
compositional data
VAR model
