摘要
本文首先应用非参数Mann-Kendall检验法和线性趋势统计检验法对塔里木河流域各水文气象要素的时间序列变化趋势进行显著性检验,根据Mann-Kendall法计算的倾斜度值分析了该流域水文气象要素的空间变化趋势,进而探讨了研究区水文气象要素的时空分布特征。然后采用非参数Z统计量检验法分析其时空变化特点,特别是对降雨、径流、日照时数和平均气温变化趋势的对比分析,判识了影响塔里木河流域水文气象要素时空变化规律的主导因素。研究结果表明:流域内降水、平均气温呈较为明显的上升趋势,径流量则表现出明显的减少趋势,说明人类活动的影响在部分水文气象要素的变化趋势中可能占据了主导地位。
Both non-parametric statistical Mann-Kendall test and linear trend statistical test methods were used to detect the longterm trend of hydrometeorological variables including precipitation, air temperature, sunshine duration and runoff in the Tarim River Basin. Spatial distribution of long-term trend was analyzed on the basis of Kendall＇s β results. Z statistical test was then used to identify the main factors affecting the spatio-temporal trends by analyzing the trend of mean air temperature, sunshine duration precipitation and runoff. The results indicate that there is an obvious increasing trend in precipitation and mean air temperature, and an opposite trend in runoff. Overall, human activities may have become the dominant factor to affect the long term trend of hydrometeorological variables.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期69-73,共5页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家气象局气候变化专项"气候变化对塔里木河流域水资源演变的影响("CCSF2007-42)
关键词
塔里木河
水文气象
时空变化
非参数检验
长期趋势
Tarim River
hydrometeorology
spatio-temporal distribution
non-parametric statistical test
long-term trend
