摘要
公共场所事故以人群聚集为条件,人群风险的控制和减缓不同于一般工业危险源风险,不确定性和随机性大,风险触发因子较多,难以控制。将人群聚集风险影响因子归结为心理扰动因素和物理扰动因素两大类,并用综合扰动强度表示两者之和。通过对公共场所内火灾、爆炸、中毒、结构失效以及人群拥挤踩踏5类事故统计资料的分析表明,5个影响因子满足林德伯格条件,依据中心极限定理,综合扰动强度可以近似用1个正态分布加以描述。以火灾事故发生的研究作为基础,推广到其余4个因子,通过李雅普诺夫定理得出公共场所中综合扰动强度的概率密度函数,并通过傅立叶级数将其表征为多个余弦函数的线性组合,并根据统计资料进行了实例分析。最终该方法可以通过某一类型公共场所的事故发生次数,得到统计平均意义下,该场所周边环境存在的各种扰动因素对聚集人群影响的大小。
The present article is aimed at introducing the authors＇ improved method of comprehensive estimation of the accident-based factors＇ impact on the large crowds-massing risk. As an ever increasing threatening trend, disastrous accidents caused by large crowd-massing have become more and more frequent events in our society. Once the accident occurs, the consequence is often catastrophic, often resulting in large numbers of casualty and material loss. Such accidents taking place in public venue, though quite different with the industrial hazardous installations or in mining places, are usually full of randomness and even arouse the social unrest. Therefore, it is urgent to focus our attention and put more efforts on the ways to set rules and methods to control and reduce the potential risk-leading factors that are likely to trigger such accidents. This article tries to separate the generally-known crowd-massing risk factors in public venue into two main categories： the mental disturbance factor and physical disturbance factor and use the definition of integrated disturbance intensity as the symbol of sum of such factors. Through the investigation and analysis of the statistical data of such accidents, as fire, explosion, poisoning, construction failure and crowd trample, the results show that the factors illustrated above are in conformity with Lindberg- Levy theorem. According to the central limit theorem, integrated disturbance intensity can be described as an approximately normal distribution. Based on the study on the fire occurrence and the extended research discoveries over other factors, the probability density function for quantifying the integrated disturbance intensity via Liyapunov theorem and through the Fourier series, integrated disturbance intensity can be quantified by the linear combination of many cosine functions, and to some other statistical data, the article has also carried out the corresponding exemplified analyses. Finally, by means of the number of accidents of certain types, the sugge
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
2007年第5期119-123,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
"十一五"科技支撑计划课题(200603746006)
