摘要
潜艇占位能力是由于受到鱼雷航程和航速的限制,为保证一定的鱼雷命中(捕获)概率而占领有利射击阵位的能力。传统潜艇占位概率模型只考虑了潜艇能否进入鱼雷射击可行阵位域,而不是进入鱼雷有利发射阵位域。因此,传统潜艇占位概率模型应作为潜艇是否采取占位行动的表征,而不宜作为潜艇是否能成功占领发射阵位的能力度量。在充分考虑潜艇占位过程中的主要影响因素(包括潜艇隐身能力、潜艇抗打击能力、目标探测能力、目标攻击能力和占位时间等)基础上,基于Markov过程理论,本文建立了新的潜射鱼雷占位能力概率模型,新模型弥补了传统潜艇占位概率模型的未能考虑潜艇占位过程中各主要因素对潜艇占位能力的综合影响的不足,同时,考虑了各主要因素之间的关系对潜艇占位能力的影响,而不必假设各主要因素对占位的作用是相互独立的,并通过实例分析,证实了新模型的有效性。
Taking-up position capability of submarine is a capability to take up favorable firing position to ensure certain hitting or acquisition probability of torpedo. Based on the analysis of the key factors（ including the stealth capability and anti-strike capability of submarine, and the detection capability, attack capability and time of taking up position of target, etc. ）, taking-up position feasibility is discussed with a conclusion that different positions lead to quite different taking-up position capabilities affected by the key factors. Based on Markov chain, a new model of taking-up position capability is established, where the stealth capability, the anti - strike capability, the detection capability, the attack capability, the time of taking-up position, and the relations among all key factors are all considered. This model makes up for the deficiency due to ignoring the influence of each key factor on the taking-up position capability and the relations among the key factors in the conventional model. An example verifies the feasibility of the new model.
出处
《鱼雷技术》
2007年第4期45-48,共4页
Torpedo Technology
关键词
潜艇
MARKOV过程
占位能力
概率模型
submarine
Markov chain
taking-up position capability
probability model
