摘要
为寻求芬兰湾(波罗的海)有效的保护战略,联合应用两个生态系统模型进行了试验。首先运行一维模型对整个波罗的海的7个主要盆地进行了参考和情景模拟,直到达到稳定状态。之后,将所获得的盆地无机氮(N)和磷(P),以及沉积易变磷(P)的分布,用于三维生态系模型5年模拟的初始化。结果表明,相对小的局部负荷量的减少("芬兰"情景)仅会显著地改善毗邻沿海水域的状态。即使模型运行期长达几十年,明显超出芬兰湾营养物质的滞留时间,情况也是如此。注入海湾的一个重要营养物负荷的显著减少("圣彼得堡"情景)将会减少整个芬兰湾及附近湾外的蓝藻细菌生物量。当前波兰营养物含量的减少会改善整个波罗的海本体的状况,并且会导致芬兰湾蓝藻细菌生物量的广泛减少。但是,要看到"波兰"情景中营养物含量减少导致的改善,需要几十年时间,而在"圣彼得堡"情景中对应的时间滞后间隔只有几年。我们的研究结果表明,波罗的海地区共同的水保护政策应该把最大的营养源作为它的主要目标,不论它们所处的地点和国家如何。
An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea).Reference and scenario simulations were first run with a one-dimensional (1D) model for seven main basins of the entire Baltic Sea until steady state was achieved.The obtained basinwise distributions of inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P),as well as sediment labile P, were then used to initiate 5-y simulations with a three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model.The results suggest that relatively small local load reductions (the 'Finland' scenario) would improve only the state of adjacent coastal waters significantly.This would be the case,even for runs covering several decades,which clearly exceed the residence times of nutrients in the Gulf of Finland.A significant decrease from a substantial loading source to the Gulf (the 'St.Petersburg' scenario) would decrease cyanobacterial biomasses in the entire Gulf of Finland and also immediately outside it.A reduction in the current Polish nutrient loads would improve the situation in the whole Baltic Proper and cause an extensive decline in cyanobacterial biomasses in the Gulf of Finland,as well.However,it would take several decades until the improvement caused by reducing loads in the 'Poland' scenario is seen,while in the St.Petersburg scenario the corresponding time lag would only be a few years.Our results suggest that the common water protection policy in the Baltic Sea region should have the largest nutrient sources as its primary target,regardless of their location and country.
