摘要
随着科学技术的迅速发展,某些技术系统(如航空发动机技术系统)的内部结构和外部环境的复杂程度都不断增加,技术决策分析的难度也相应地增大。因此,需要建立一套相应的技术决策定量分析方法,使对于复杂技术系统的技术发展决策逐步科学化。本文首先分析了技术系统发展中的相互作用问题及其对于技术决策分析的重要性。然后,提出了一个体现了技术之间相互作用的技术决策分析数学模型。并给出了这个模型在航空发动机技术决策分析中的应用实例。最后,讨论了进一步研究的设想和前景。
Technology systems can be characterized by technical interactions among the technologies of the system. These interactions result in the complexity in behaviors of the system, which entails difficulties in the decision analysis of technology management. In order to study the behavior of the technology systems,this paper presents a mathemati- cal model depicting the evelution of teohnology systems in which the nonlinear interactions are explicitly taken into account. A field of the system, constituted by a set of possible system states, can be obtained by solving the set of equations by numerical analysis methods. By ana- lyzing the field we can understand some behaviors of the system. Based on this model, a small fluctuation method for technology management is proposed for decisionmakers to examine the influence of their decisions on the behavior of the system. The utility of this approach is demonstrated in the context of a reai world case study of a technology system in aeroengine technology. It includes 23 interacted technologies which is a part of the R&D Program of Chinese Advanced Aeroengines for the 1990s. The results of the numerical analyses show that under a certain internal structure (the internal interaction) and a certain boundary condition. the fields of the system in different initial states exhibit a similarity in the distribution patterns,which is caused by the nonlinearity of the interaction of the technologies of the system.
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
1990年第3期29-38,共10页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
