摘要
讨论研究了水文特征值预报的数学方法：统计回归模型、神经网络模型和模糊回归模型．三个计算实例表明如果系统的线性关系较好，统计回归模型的结果最好；如果系统的线性关系差，神经网络模型的结果最好；如果用于率定模型的资料太短．任何一个模型都不可靠．
Three mathematical models, i. e. regressive analysis method, artificial neutral method and fuzzy regressive method, are commonly used in the flood forecasting for special values. The practical calculation results of three cases provided in this paper show that either one is suitable for all cases. The regressive analysis method is favorable when the system has better linear correlations;otherwise the artificial neutral net method is better if the system is not linearly correlated. None of the above-mentioned method is reliable when the data needed for the calibration are not enough.
出处
《湖泊科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1997年第2期117-122,共6页
Journal of Lake Sciences
关键词
洪水预报
神经网络
回归分析
数学法
特征预报
Flood forecasting, artificial neutral method, regressive analysis, fuzzy regressive analysis
