摘要
分析了英国尼古拉斯.斯特恩领导完成的“从经济学角度看气候变化”报告的主要内容,并从科学基础、气候变化中的经济学问题、减排行动的政策与经济因素、适应行动的效益分析以及全球合作应对气候的意义等5个方面对报告的主要内容、立场和结论进行了介绍。报告认为,气候变化是不争的事实,如果人类按照目前的模式继续发展下去,到21世纪末,全球温度可能会升高2～3℃以上,这将会造成全球经济的GDP比重下挫5%～10%,而贫穷国家则会超过10%。如果现在即采取措施,在2050年前把温室气体浓度控制在450×10-6～550×10-6的水平上,减排的成本大约仅占GDP的1%。报告提出,要建立长期稳定的碳价格政策、低碳技术发展政策、消除阻碍减排行动的障碍因素,保证温室气体减排行动的有效实施。全球合作和以适应为目标的气候行动目前在经济上是可行的,并有利于气候目标的实现。
Stern Review ： the Economics of Climate Change analyzed the impact of climate change from a special angle. This paper gives an introduction to and analysis of its standpoint, methods, and results from five aspects： science basis, economic issues of climate change, policy of greenhouse gas reduction and its economic factors, cost-income analysis of adaptation, and implication of global response activities to climate change. Stern Review agreed that climate change is really true. If human society developed as usual pattern, global surface temperature would rise with 2 - 3℃. Stern Review addressed that this wonld lead global economic loss with 5% - 10% of GDP. In poor countries, their loss wonld exceed 10% of GDP. If human society takes some measures to keep the concentration of greenhouse gas in the range of 450 × 10 ^-6 - 550 × 10^ -6 before 2050, the cost of reduction will account for 1% of GDP. Stern Review also suggested that ： a carbon price, technology policy, and the removal of barriers to behavioural change are essential to mitigation, and leaving out any one of these elements will significantly increase the costs of action and that global cooperation and adaptation activities are feasible for economy and climate objectives.
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第7期754-759,共6页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程方向项目"生态环境与资源海洋创新基地战略研究与可行评价"(编号:KZCXZ-YW-501)
中国科学院"西部之光"人才培养计划项目"甘肃省利用清洁发展机制的对策与实现途径研究"
甘肃省重大科技专项"甘肃省清洁发展机制项目开发"(编号:ZGS063-A74-014-01)共同资助.
