摘要
利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的耦合气候模式FGOALS1.0_g控制试验、二氧化碳(CO2)浓度加倍试验模拟结果及实测结果(NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料)研究了全球变暖对大气季节内振荡(ISO)特征变化的影响。通过对比分析控制试验、二氧化碳浓度加倍试验模拟结果及观测结果发现:(1)FGOALS1.0_g耦合气候模式具有一定的模拟季节内振荡的能力,主要表现为模式能够模拟出ISO活跃区的位置、中心位置的季节变动以及强度的季节变化,其缺陷是模拟的ISO强度偏弱,模拟的ISO周期不显著且偏高频;(2)实测资料诊断分析得到的近六十年来偏暖阶段ISO活跃区强度增强及范围扩大可能不是人类活动影响使温室气体增加所导致的,它可能是大气ISO本身的年代际尺度变化;(3)近六十年来纬向东传波(西传波)的能量的存在增长(减少)趋势的主要原因可能是人类活动影响引起温室气体增加所导致的;(4)由于FGOALS1.0_g耦合气候模式在模拟ISO主周期及强度方面时存在不足,因此实测结果诊断分析得到的偏暖阶段ISO小波能量强,主周期范围大,偏冷阶段反之的结论用FGOALS1.0_g耦合气候模式尚难以证实。
The chief goal of this article is to explore some changes in tropical atmospheric interseasonal oscillation （ISO） under the background of global climate warming. Because the greenhouse gases （CO2 is devoting maximum） increase results in climate warming during the 20th century, the impact of global warming on the ISO is explored by means of the numerical modeling by a coupled GCM-FGOALS1.0_g, which is developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）. The article is divided into two parts： the first part is to investigate the changes in tropical atmosphere intraseasonal oscillation feature simulated by the coupled GCM without anthropogenic forcing （e. g. natural variability）, the second part is to investigate the changes in tropical atmosphere intraseasonal oscillation feature under the global warming background induced by CO2 increase （e. g. anthropogenic impact）.
Based on the control experiment, CO2 doubling experiment with coupled climate system model FGOALS1.0_g and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the influence of anthropogenic activities on fundamental feature of the atmosphere intraseasonal oscillation as well as its interannual and interdecadal variation is investigated. By means of comparison between model and observation, it is found that （1） the coupled climate system model FGOALS1.0_g shows ability to somewhat extent to simulate atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation, for example, the region where ISO is active in the global, the seasonal variation of center with the maximum ISO intensity and the seasonal cycle of ISO intensity. But the coupled model underestimates ISO intensity and the simulated ISO frequency is higher than the observed one; （2） the fact that the observed ISO intensity in the active region is strengthened and the extention of the active region is enlarged during the warming period may not resuhe from CO2 increase induced by human activi- ties, i
出处
《大气科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第4期577-585,共9页
Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目40675049
40221503
90211011
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2006CB4036005
中国科学院创新团队国际合作伙伴计划"气候系统模式的研发和应用"
关键词
季节内振荡
人类活动影响
全球变暖
数值模拟
intraseasonal oscillation, numerical simulation, anthropogenic influence, interdecadal variation
