摘要
针对贝叶斯推理研究中基础概率忽略现象的争论,直接操纵基础概率水平,考察被试在贝叶斯推理时是否加工了基础概率信息。结果表明,低基础概率组后验概率估计显著低,无基础概率组后验概率估计反应时显著短于有基础概率组。被试在各种条件下估计的正确率都较低,说明对基础概率在贝叶斯推理中的作用考虑不充分。
In order to clarify the disputes of the base-rate neglect phenomenon in Bayesian reasoning, the study examined whether the information of base-rate is processed in Bayesian reasoning. The results showed that post probability estimation was significantly lower under low base-rate conditions than that under high base-rate conditions; RT was remarkably shorter under no-base-rate conditions than that under base-rate conditions. The correct rate was low under all conditions. This indicated that the information of base-rate was processed cursorily .
出处
《心理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第3期680-682,共3页
Journal of Psychological Science
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(项目号:05JZD00034)。
关键词
贝叶斯推理
基础概率
概率估计
Bayesian reasoning, base rate, probability estimation
