摘要
2003年SARS是中国公众健康的“灾难”,交通旅客运输因此蒙受巨大损失。依据本底趋势线理论,对此次危机的交通客运量损失进行了定量估算。结果显示:2003年SARS共造成交通旅客损失10·07亿人次,其中,公路损失8·88亿人次,铁路损失1·05亿人次,航空损失1611·7万人次,水运损失1943万人次;危机的生命周期从2003年4月开始,5～6月全面爆发,7～8月消减衰退,11～12月有一定的补偿;由于交通区位和SARS疫情的差异,全国28个省(市)自治区客运量损失可划分为4个等级,其中,广东、四川、河北3省客运量损失超过1亿人次;以28个省(市)自治区客运量损失与2003年本底值、SARS确诊人数建立空间预报模型,结果显示,客运量本底值边际系数为0·78846,SARS确诊人数边际系数为0·075868。
The SARS in 2003 is a public health crisis in China. The passenger transport witnesses serious landslide and suffers a heavy loss. In this article, the loss of passenger transport and its regional difference impacted by SARS are analyzed and estimated. The loss of passenger transport is nearly 1.007 billion persontimes in 2003 impacted by SARS crisis, in which the highway transportation loss is 888 million, the railway loss is 105 million, the aviation is 16.12 million and water carriage is 19.43 million. As a short breaking event, it starts from March in 2003 for the crisis formation, breaks out in whole from May to June, and enters the decay and comeback from July to August, and has a compensating from November to December after the crisis. Due to the difference in transport location and epidemic situation, the loss of passenger transport impacted by SARS in 28 provinces in China can be classified into 4 types. Guangdong, Sichuan and Hebei suffer the most and the loss is over 100 million person-times. The relativity analysis is carried out based on the loss of transportation, cardinal number in 2003 and the number of infect person of SARS, and a new spatial forecast model is put forward for space forecast in transport crisis. The model shows that the marginal coefficient of transportation cardinal number is 0.788 46, the marginal coefficient of SARS patients is 0. 075 868.
出处
《中国工程科学》
2007年第6期32-37,42,共7页
Strategic Study of CAE
基金
国家自然科学基金(40271052)
国家社会科学基金(03BJY0088)联合资助项目
关键词
SARS危机
本底趋势线
客运量损失
地域分布
空间模型
SARS crisis
background trend line
loss of transportation
terrain distribution
spatial model
