摘要
内蒙古准格尔旗位于我国半干旱地区,其粮食单产变化除受品种改良、技术革新等人为因素影响外,还主要受气候波动尤其是降水波动的影响。采用多种方法进行叠加模拟,建立了准格尔旗粮食单产变化的时间序列模型,并对未来几年粮食单产变化进行了预测。
Zhum Ge-er Banner is located at semiarid regien in the Northwest China. Besides man-made factors such as breed improvement. Technical innovation, etc. , the grain yield (per hectare) is still dominated by climate fluctuation, especially precipitation fluctuation. In this paper, the author established the time sequence model of changing process of per unit area grain yield by imitating and accumulating with many kinds of methods. Finally the changing results of grain output per hectare in future several yers was also forcasfed according to the time sequence model.
出处
《农业系统科学与综合研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第2期147-150,共4页
System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目的部分内容(4870068)
关键词
粮食单产
时间序列模型
预测
准格尔旗
Per unit area grain qield. Time sequence model, Forecast, Zhun Ge-er Banner
