摘要
本文利用海－气耦合的能量平衡模式研究了全球平均气温的变化。在对130年来全球气温变化的模拟研究中，比较全面地考虑了各种辐射强迫因子。此外，对于厄尼诺－南方涛动对全球平均温度的贡献也做了模式估计。数值模拟的全球温度序列与观测序列的相关系数达0．884，可解释77．8％的温度变化，并反映出温度的年际和年代际变化的特征，这可能是目前国内外同类工作的最佳结果。
An energy -balance /upwelling-diffusion climate model was used to simulate the global temperature changes from 1861 to 1990. The atmospheric part of the model is essentially a zero-dimension one, in which the relationship between the temperature and the altitude, latitude and longitude was not considered. This model was coupled with a simple ocean model to include the heat flux through the upwelling and downwelling of oceanic circulation, as well as the heat exchanges between the polar and nor -polar regions.Impact of three most commonly cited external forcing factors, of climatic change including solar activity, volcanism and greenhouse effect were considered.Representativeness and quality of forcing factor data are critical to the simulation.Although there were observation data of the solar forcing about 100 years ago,the reliability of such data is questionable. The trustworthy observation appeared only after the satellite observation was available in 1970s. Therefore, some kinds of other series related to the solar forcing changes, instead of the forcing series itself, must be used to estimate the contribution of solar forcing on the climate changes during the last century. The envelope of the 11-yr sunspots cycle series was considered as a suitable indicator of solar radiation variability. It was transformed into forcing series based on recent radiation observation of satellite. The influence of the volcanism on the climate is very complicated, which varies with different eruption altitudes, intensity and seasons, etc. The evaluation of its influence is still controversial. A new ice-core volcanic index was chosen as a reliable estimate of volcanic aerosols loading in the atmosphere. The index was first changed into a series of stratospheric aerosol optical depth, and then to forcing series. Besides the greenhouse gas, the troposphere aerosol contributes to the climate changes through influencing the outgoing forcing directly. In addition, the aerosol changes the outgoing forcing indirectly by affecting the
出处
《第四纪研究》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第1期21-27,共7页
Quaternary Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
气候变化
气温模拟
能量平衡模式
气温变化
climatic changes, climate simulation, energy balance model, forcing
