摘要
使用国家气候中心的区域气候模式对1961～1990、2001～2030年湖北省逐月气温、降水量的预估值(格点0.5°×0.5°,A2情景),以1961～1990年湖北省平均温度和平均降水量为基准,计算并分析未来30年(2001～2030年)及每10年年平均气温、降水量变化趋势。结果表明:(1)未来30年湖北省年平均气温普遍呈上升趋势,上升幅度在0.19～0.39℃之间,平均0.27℃,鄂南增温比鄂北快,其中2021～2030年增幅最大,2001～2010年增幅最小;(2)年平均降水量湖北省大部呈减少趋势,表现出南增北减、东增西减的特点,2001～2010年变化不大,2011～2020年绝大多数站点均有不同幅度增加,2021～2030年全省各地呈一致的下降趋势,湖北省南涝北旱趋势将有所加剧。
By using the monthly averaged data during 1961～1990 and 2001～2030 that predicted by regional climate model of national climate center to air temperature, precipitation in Hubei province（grid 0.5°×0.5°, SRES A2）, and by using mean air temperature and mean precipitation during 1961～1990 in Hubei province, the thesis computes and analyzes the change tendency of annual mean air temperature and annual mean precipitation in future 30 years and every 10 years. The results show that： （1）In future 30 years, annual mean air temperature in Hubei province presents generally ascending tendency, the ascending extent is 0.19～ 0.39 ℃, the average is 0.27 ℃, and the annual mean air temperature in the south of Hubei province increases more quickly than that in the north of Hubei province, thereinto, the ascending extent during 2021～2030 is most, and that during 2001～2010 is least.（2）The annual mean precipitation in Hubei province mostly presents descending tendency and takes on the characteristic that the annual mean precipitation in the south of Hubei province ascends and that in the north of Hubei province descends, that in the east of Hubei province ascends and that in the west of Hubei province descends, the change of annual mean precipitation during 2001～2010 is not obvious, during 2011～2020, the annual mean precipitation in most stations ascends at different degree, and during 2021～2030, that in all areas of Hubei province has accordant descending tendency, these will aggravate the tendency that the south of Hubei province tends to waterlogging and the north of Hubei province tends to drought.
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2007年第1期78-82,共5页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2006-31
CCSF2007-21)
武汉区域气候中心项目(WRCC2006-7)
关键词
湖北省
气温
降水量
气候变化
趋势预测
Hubei province
Air temperature
Precipitation
Climate change
Tendency analysis
