摘要
通过建立投资周期模型,分析我国的投资波动频率以及固定资产投资循环波动指数的变化情况,然后运用Granger因果关系检验固定资产投资波动是否是形成经济周期的主要原因。由于固定资产投资中基础设施等低产出投资比重过大,导致产能过剩等问题。因此政府可以改革现行财税制度,以降低各级地方政府抓投资、上项目的冲动,以保持经济快速稳定增长。
With the investment cycle model established, the changes are analyzed in China＇s investment fluctuation frequency and the index of cyclic fluctuation in fixed asset investment. Then with Granger causality, a test is made on whether the fluctuation of fixed asset investment leads to economic cycle or not. Due to a too large proportion of low output investment such as infrastructure in fixed asset investment, the problems of a surplus in production capability, etc. have been resulted. Therefore, the government should reform the present fiscal and tax system to press down the impulse of local governments to blindly invest the projects so that a rapid and steady economic growth can be sustained.
出处
《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第3期41-43,53,共4页
JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES
关键词
投资周期
经济增长
格兰杰影响
波动性
investment cycle
economic growth
Granger causality
fluctuation
