摘要
本文采用季节调整的方法,通过考察“五一”、“十一”长假制度实施前后季节模式的变迁,定量测算了“假日经济”对居民消费的影响以及春节的移动假日效应,结果显示“假日经济”实际上更多的是有限的消费在不同时期间的转移和替代。居民收入增长缓慢,以及未来预期的不确定性是制约居民消费的关键因素。
China changed its holiday institution in 1999.Using seasonal adjustment method,this paper analyzes the evolution of seasonal factors and the magnitude of moving holiday effects on China's retail sales series.The results show that 'holiday economy' is characterized by consumption transfer and substitution within inter-temporal budget constraint.The main factors restricting household consumption include the slowdown of household income growth rate and the uncertainty of future expectation.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第3期89-94,共6页
Modern Economic Science
基金
中国人民银行项目"PBC版时间序列X-12-ARIMA季节调整原理研究"课题成果之一
