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基于Monte Carlo的CLV改进模型研究

A Study of Improved CLV Model Based on Monte Carlo
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摘要 顾客终生价值(CLV)模型有助于企业管理者识别营销渠道中的关键顾客,从而更有效地利用有限资源。但传统的CLV模型大多存在着明显的局限性,因为它们多是根据顾客过去的购买模式或者人口统计学特征来推断顾客未来行为和顾客未来的盈利能力,不能很好地反映出顾客价值的波动趋势。而将蒙特卡洛分析法运用到CLV模型中,能较好地反映影响CLV的多种因素,使模型更符合实情。 The CLV model is conducive to enterprise's identification of key customers in the marketing and therefore the limited resources can be better exploited. Most of current CLV models have apparent limitations in that they infer the customer's future behaviors and profit-making ability according to the customer's past purchase mode or features of demography, so these models fail to reflect the fluctuating tendency of customer value. This paper applies Monte Carlo to CLV model and concludes that the improved model can demonstrate multiple factors influencing the CLV in a more effective way.
出处 《西南交通大学学报(社会科学版)》 2007年第1期120-124,共5页 Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University(Social Sciences)
关键词 MONTE CARLO模拟 顾客终生价值 顾客识别 Monte Carlo model customer lifetime value (CLV) customer identification
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