摘要
投资是整个宏观经济体系运转过程中非常重要的一个环节,而货币政策对投资水平的作用是一个受到广泛关注的问题。理论界普遍的共识是,至少在短期内货币政策还是能对一国投资总水平产生影响。本文运用VAR模型、IRF检验及格兰杰因果关系检验,对我国货币政策与投资水平的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示,包括货币供给量、利率、汇率等在内的货币政策工具对总投资水平都会产生影响,相比较而言,货币供给量和利率的影响更大,持续时间更长。基于此,本文提出了通过适当减少货币供给量、调整利率和放开汇率等途径来提高投资水平的政策建议。
Investment plays an important role in the running process of the whole macroeconomic system; meanwhile the effect of monetary policy on investment is a widespreadly-concerned problem. It is widely accepted that monetary policy do have an effect on investment of a country unless in the short run. This paper uses VAR Model, IRF Test and Granger Cause--Result Test to test the relationship between monetary policy and investment in China. The result indicates that the tools of monetary policy, including the supply of money, interest rate and exchange rate, have an effect on the gross investment. Furthermore, the influence of the supply of money and interest is bigger than exchange rate, and lasts for a longer time. Based on this point, this paper puts forth some policy suggestions： we can improve the level of gross investment by properly decreasing the supply of money, adjusting interest rate and unloosening exchange rate.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第4期26-31,共6页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
关键词
投资
货币政策
货币供给量
利率
汇率
Investment Monetary policy The supply of money Interest rate Exchange rate
