摘要
中国烟草行业具有行政上的垄断性和生产上的计划性,有别与其它行业。做好卷烟销量的预测,是当前烟草行业工业生产环节与商业环节协同平滑进展的前提。本文运用了时间序列预测法,并选择了带季节指数的移动平均和最小平方法,分别对烟草系统的短、中期总体销量进行预测,同时为保证预测的可信度和选择最优的预测方法,通过计算预测标准差,设定误差控制。从算例结果比较来看,预测方法具有良好的有效性和实用性。
Chinese tobacco trade system is different from other trade system,it has the feature of administration monopoly and produce plan. Forecasting the tobaeco Demands is the key for the industry and trade system＇ s mutual benefit.
This paper forecaste the short-term anti medium-term tobacco demands by Time-series Analysis with Season-Index Moving Average and Minimum Square method. For obtaining the excellent method, the paper calculate a standard error and set up a error control method. The cases study shows that the methods is valid and useful.
出处
《现代机械》
2007年第2期4-6,9,共4页
Modern Machinery
关键词
时间序列预测法
季节指数
误差控制
需求预测
time-series analysis
season-Index moving average
error control
demand foreasting
