摘要
随着招投标项目竞争的日益剧烈,对于项目费用估算的准确性,以及费用不确定性风险分析的要求越来越高,采用概率费用分析的估算方法代替确定性费用估算的需求日益迫切。文章结合国外相关文献的成果,对采用蒙特卡罗模拟的费用风险分析方法、应具备的条件、需要注意的问题以及优势进行了探讨。
The accuracy and uncertain analysis for pro- ject cost is necessary for competitive bidding project. The need to substitute traditional deterministic cost estimation method by probability cost analysis is im- perious.Cost risk analysis method based on Monte-- Carlo simulation and relative conditions,attentive proceedings and advantages are discussed with the re- sults of literature.It could be valuable for actual ap- plication.
出处
《石油化工设计》
CAS
2007年第1期35-38,共4页
Petrochemical Design
