摘要
本文以1978-2004年为样本数据,对中国人口和粮食产量进行了单位根检验、协整检验和Granger因果关系检验.结果表明,样本期内人口因素不是粮食生产的Geanger原因,人口增长和粮食生产发展并不协调.通过建立中国粮食生产模型,预测了2006-2010年的人口增长与粮食生产趋势,提出了实现中国人口增长与粮食生产和谐发展的几点建议.
The text selects 1949- 2004 Annual sample data, uses EXIEWS5.0 software to examine the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger eausality examination of the population growth and grain-produetion of China separately. The result shows that population is not granger reason of grain - production, the population growth and grain - production to predict population growth and grain supply and demand of the following 6 years, and proposed some suggestions based on harmonious development.
出处
《经济数学》
2006年第4期380-385,共6页
Journal of Quantitative Economics
关键词
人口增长
粮食生产
协整检验
GRANGER检验
Population growth, grain- production, co- integration test, Granger examination
