摘要
利用灰色灾变预测原理,解决预测中的历史数据跳变问题;利用传统的回归方法,对跳变点之间的情况加以预测,实现GM(1,1)和传统回归预测的组合预测。通过对安徽省农民人均纯收入的预测分析,结果表明:该法克服了GM(1,1)模型和传统回归预测各自的缺陷,使得预测结果更接近未来发展的趋势。
By using grey disaster forecasting theory that solved the problem of the aberrant points＇ presence of the history data in GM （1,1） forecasting model and using the character of regression, a combined method was come up with. After using the method to the prediction of peasants＇ per income, the result showed that the new method overcame some deficiencies in GM （1,1） model and conventional regression respectively. Compared with other forecasting model, the result was more convincing.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2007年第2期134-137,共4页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
安徽省高校青年教师科研计划项目"安徽省市域发展空间结构演变机制研究"(2006jq1160)
