摘要
分析影响干散货船运输效益的两个主要随机变量:非生产停泊时间、燃油价格。通过统计数据,指出它们的分布特点,并通过假设检验,得到非生产停泊时间符合爱尔朗分布,燃油价格符合威布尔分布的结论。在此基础上,将随机模拟方法应用于10000t级江海直达干散货船的运输效益分析中,得到该船在北仑港到武汉港航线上符合实际情况的必要运费率的累积概率分布值。
This paper analyzes two major random variables affecting apparently economics of the bulk carriers transporting： non-production waiting time and fuel price. By statistical analysis, their distribution characters are deduced that the non-production waiting time follows the Erlang distribution, while the fuel price follows Weibull distribution. The random simulation is applied in the analysis of transporting economics for a 10 000 t river-to-sea bulk carrier, to get the accumulation probability of this ship＇ required freight rate of real situation.
出处
《船海工程》
北大核心
2007年第1期8-10,共3页
Ship & Ocean Engineering
关键词
随机模拟
爱尔朗分布
威布尔分布
干散货船
random simulation Erlang distribution Weibull distribution bulk carrier
