摘要
文章利用2001-2004年湖南省县级水平的面板数据，通过对数线性回归模型分析了影响当地人口边际生育行为的因素，并验证了莱宾斯坦教授所提出的边际生育行为决定理论。结果表明，各县经济发展水平对于当地多孩率有非常显著的影响。同时发现，收入水平、非农业化过程等因素的影响与经济发展的影响并不同步，而这也是在中国未来人口政策制定过程中要着重考虑的问题。
Since Malthus presented his theory,the relationship between economic development and population growth has been under sharp debating.Based on the county-level panel data of Hunan province,China,from 2001 to 2004,we constructed a linear logarithmic regression model to analyse the determinants of local multi-children rate and to test the theory of Leibenstein and finds that the economic development has a very strong influence on the multi-children rate.Meanwhile,other factors,like the income and the non-agricultural sector expansion,may have asynchronous effects on their marginal fertility decision,which calls for attention of the policy-makers.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第1期60-70,共11页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金的资助
北京大学“985”和“211”工程的支持.
