摘要
经济周期的相似性被认为是进行金融合作的重要前提条件。通过以1994～2005年间中日韩三国GDP的季度时间序列为基础建立的三者之间的向量误差修正模型进行的实证分析可以看出，中日韩三国GDP之间存在协整关系，且具有共同的长期发展趋势。它们具有长期的稳定关系，满足经济金融合作的前提条件之一。
The study investigates whether China, Japan, and Korea have common synchronous business cycle, which are perceived as one of the pre-conditions of a financial cooperation （Currency Union）. Based on co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model, this paper investigate the longrun and short-run linkage between three countries by analyzing the quarterly data of GDP during the period from Jan. 1994 to Jan. 2005. The Johansen Test statistics indicate the GDP of China, Japan, and Korea share some common stochastic trends. The co-integration of GDPs may be viewed as a necessary condition for economic and financial cooperation.
出处
《财经理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第1期25-29,共5页
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
关键词
经济金融合作
协整分析
向量误差修正模型
Economic and Financial Cooperation
Co-integration Analysis
Vector Error Correction Model
