摘要
将中国大陆及其邻区1902年以来Ms≥7地震的成组活动划分出7组，其首发大震分别为1902年阿图什8．2级，1911年阿拉木图8．2级，1920年海原8．5级，1931年富蕴8．0级，1946年缅甸7．8级，1966年邢台7．2级，1988年缅甸7．2级。川滇Ms≥6．7地震成组活动划分出5组，其首发强震为1913年峨山7．0级，1933年茂县7．5级，1948年理塘7．3级，1966年东川6．5级、6．2级，1988年澜沧7．4级。其中，川滇Ms≥7的首发大震滞后中国大陆首发大震几个月至4年不等。按成组大震的界定，目前中国大陆处于1998--2007年（估计）的大震少发时段。川滇未来1～2年的大震形势为川滇西部存在发生大震的可能性。中国大陆新一轮强震成组活动中的大地震将可能在2007--2009年前后发生，主体危险区可能为天山地震带中段及川滇东部。2007--2008年可能出现5--6级地震的增强过程。巧家-东川一带可能最先发生6级地震。
Since 1902, the group actMties of earthquakes with Ms≥7 are divided into 7 groups in China mainland and its neighbouring area. The strong earthquakes occurred firstly Atushi earthquake with Ms8.2 in 1902, Almuty one with Ms8.2 in 1911, Haiyuan one with Ms8.5 in 1920, Fuyun one with Ms8.0 in 1931, Burma one with Ms7.8 in 1946, Xingtai one with Ms7.2 in 1966 and Burma one with Ms7.2 in 1988 respectively. The group activities of earthquakes with M s≥3.7 are divided into 5 groups in Sichuan and Yunnan. The strong earthquakes occurred firstly the Eshan earthquake with Ms7.0 in 1913, Mao county one with Ms7.5 in 1933, Litang one with Ms7.3 in 1948, Dongchuan ones with Ms6.5 and Ms6.2 in 1966 and Lancang one with Ms7.4 in 1988. In them, the first strong earthquakes in Sichuan and Yunnan lagged ones of China mainland from several months to 4 years. According to the limits of the group strong earthquakes, China mainland is at present the time of few strong earthquakes in 1998--2007（According to estimate）. The western of Sichuan and Yunnan will occur possibly strong earthquakes in the future of 1--2 year. A new turn of group strong earthquakes maybe occur possibly around 2007--2009. The danger zone of the main body is possibly the middle part of Tianshan earthquake belt and the eastern of Sichuan and Yunnan. In 2007--2008, it appears possibly the enhancement processes of earthquakes with Ms5--6. It is possibly to occur firstly earthqtmke with Ms6 in Qiaojia-Dongchuan area.
出处
《内陆地震》
2006年第4期305-316,共12页
Inland Earthquake
基金
地震科学联合基金课题D07018资助
关键词
成组大震
成组强震
主体活跃区
地震活动图像
异常特征
The group big earthquake
The group strong earthquake
The active area of main body
Seismic activity image
Abnormal characteristic
