摘要
本文建立了家庭生命周期消费储蓄优化模拟模型,并利用该模型对我国居民家庭生命周期阶段各类家庭的消费储蓄行为进行了模拟研究,比较分析了家庭生育决策、教育决策和收入转移决策变化对家庭消费储蓄行为的影响以及利率变动和信贷约束的影响。模拟结果显示,信贷约束对家庭消费路径有着重要影响,约束了家庭在新生阶段和中间阶段的消费水平;教育费用的提高和教育投资实现的不确定性风险提高了家庭的教育储蓄水平;生育数的降低、教育投资机会的短缺和代际关系的松散化趋势提高了家庭的养老储蓄水平。利率的提高使生命周期前期的家庭消费下降,使生命周期后期的家庭消费提高。提高利率政策的消费传导效应,可以通过提高受教育程度和增加消费信贷来实现。
This paper has built an optimizing simulation model for lifecycle consumption and saving behaviors of Chinese families, and makes simulation studies on the lifecycle consumption and saving behaviors of Chinese various families by this model. It comparatively analyzes the influences of family bearing decisions, education decisions and income transition decisions on families＇ behaviors of consumption saving, and the effects of exchange of interest rates and credit restrict. Through the simulation, we find that credit restrict plays an important role in consumption path of family life, which lowers the consumption level in the starting phase and meditan phase. Education saving increases with the raise of education fee and the risk of education realization. Retirement saving increases as bearing number falls, education opportunity lacks, and intergeneration relationship looses. The raise of interest rates lowers the consumption of family in starting and medium phases, and increases the consumption of family in middle and aged phases. An increase in education opportunity or an increase in consumption credit can improve the effect of interest on consumption and reduce the saving ratio.
出处
《复旦学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第6期14-24,共11页
Fudan Journal（Social Sciences）
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(项目批准号:70573021)
上海市哲学社会科学基金项目(项目批准号:2006BJB002)的阶段性成果
关键词
家庭生命周期
生育和教育
收入转移
消费储蓄规划
微观模拟
family life cycle
bearing and child education decision
income transition decision
consumption and saving program
micro simulation
